OK, sorry to rant a bit, but come on!!!

Don't expect tips, flame away if you want.

Just had to get that off my chest.

no, I don't think we're going to lose, but I'm not as confident as I was on Monday.

This is not about whether or not we can lose, it terrifies me that there's even a 1% chance Mussolini in a Miniskirt could be a heartbeat away from appointing SCOTUS justices and that has me up nights.

Sarah Palin doesn't have me terrified, but she looks like a smart pick for McCain. McCain doesn't have me terrified, but he was the Republican most likely to beat Obama. This will be a tight race, and I knew in the primaries that Obama was most poorly positioned to win it.

Obama needs working class voters, he doesn't have them yet. Biden helps, but not much. So far Obama does not appear to be worried, I think he should be.

Hell Yeah!

Its a fight and it is ON!

"Call for Hillary to save us?  Hell, that is what all the trolls are going to try and torment you with."

I happen to agree with you.  But I call them 'bots, not trolls:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/9/4/24951 /00256#readmore

When you guys go to a birthday party, do you discuss actuarial tables and such dismal shit or do you enjoy the celebration marking the passage of another year of hating Republicans? This year, we are going to hand the smug bastards a defeat of epic proportions, and I for one am savoring every moment.

Recap of the Conventions:

Democratic Convention: ROCKED!

Republican Convention: SUCKED!

Which part of this wonderful time has bummed you out? Go eat some prunes and have a good bowel movement, if you're so constipated.

It looks like Palin will be in Florida with HRC at the same time next week (the sentence structure is weird but you know what I mean); the Obama campaign is apparently dispatching Schumer with her as well.

That they are sending HRC to Florida is not a surprise; that the Obama camp is using Schumer suggests that it smells some blood with her ties to extremists and her weakness on foreign policy in a state that focuses more on foreign policy than any other state according to Rasmussen and Silver.

I really thought Team Obama would shut down in Florida after its polling had stalled despite all the money it spent on ads and McCain's failure to spend even a dime in the state on ads.  With Biden there a couple days this week, HRC there next week, and even Schumer now, it seems that the Palin pick, despite her other strengths, may have put the state back in play.  We'll have to wait for polling to either confirm my theory or make me sound like a complete idiot.

I needed it.  I have been lurking today and feeling bummed.  I did not watch Palin's speech but heard snippets on the cable news.  IMHO she cannnot hold a candle to BO. But, the MSM acted like she invented Christmas. How can the media call her a "Rock Star" after basically 6 days on the national scene.  In 6 days, she became a rock star?  The MSM is fickle and games the system.  Obama has been tested for 19 months against the Clinton machine. And the Clintons are no joke!!! Come on people, we came through the primary supporting different and spectacular Democrats, but we ended up on the same great team.  I am fired up and ready to go.  This weekend, I am leaving DC and driving down to the VA exurbs to work for the campaign.  I intend to do this at least twice a month until the election. We need to work and not worry. I have been through some adversity in my life and I always have hope.

Relax everybody. There's bound to be a bounce it just the nature of things.

You'll notice the McCain campaign is keeping the Gov. off the Sunday talk shows.  Sort of telling that she may not be ready for prime questioning.

So no stress get to work, if you can't work donate. I gave another  $100 bucks today.

I am NOT scared.  I am simply looking to employ Napoleon's approach to combat:

Find the biggest and heaviest thing you can and keep hitting your opponent in the head with it until he's finished.

Hillary Clinton makes for one hell of big rock.

Well, thanks for the posts folks.

Heading over to band practice, I will probably break a snare head tonight, as long as I keep focusing on pundits telling me Sarah Palin's speech was EPIC!

WHAMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You're right, of course.

She's a tough but hugely divisive pick.  We're being forced right back into the same sort of culture war campaign that both candidates decried at the start of the primaries.  It'll be ugly, nasty, and bumpy throughout but I think the GOP is more torn on this than us.  Their base hungers for the battle on exactly these grounds. The problem being that it really only appeals to their base.  If they manage to finesse the issue deftly we might have a problem.  If the low-information public never sees beyond War Hero/Maverick & Really Nice Hockey Mom/Reformer we may loose votes that are honestly aligned with the Dems.   But I think that the hard-Right feels they're a movement now & enough of them will push this well past the tipping point.

But thoughts and expectations don't win elections.  Donations and action do.  Give money, give time & give your friends, family and acquaintances encouragement to do the same.

(And I also look just like Nostradamus, pointy hat and all...)

I predicted months ago that after the RNC convention, the Republicans would get some good polls and they would even be AHEAD in some polls.  Maybe even most of them!  And that the usual worry warts would just fly into total "Tolja so!" panic/ecstasy.

So that's what is coming AFTER the convention, and we're not even there yet.  Just BRACE yourself.

Why?  Because it's NORMAL for candidates to get a bump in the polls after a convention.  But it's also, sadly, too common for many Democrats to freak out when the polls turn the other way for even a moment.  God bless them if they ever invest in the stock market.  They'll be buying high and selling low every time.

So McCain will get a bounce, some indicators will look better for him, he'll get some good press and some reports that the race is tight or asking why Obama isn't doing better.  

And then the real contest will begin.  As it begins, some of McCain's numbers will slip.

After that, I don't know what will happen.  Nobody does.  The fundamentals drastically favor us, but everything up to that point is as predictable as clockwork.  

So don't fucking panic.  You lose my respect when you do.  If you can't control your mood swings, just shut up, get off of here, and play WOW for a couple of weeks.  All of this was predicted, is predicted, and can be discounted as irrelevant bullshit.  You didn't think Obama's convention bounce was going to win it for us, did you?  Don't be naive.

Thank you Blue!

Jerome wants us to lay down and die.

I will not.  I'm fighting back...HARD.

election. Given an even split amongst independents, it would depend upon who can excite their base to turn out and vote. Thus, Palin choice helped McCain, by exciting his disaffected social conservatives and bringing them back into his fold. Given, there are about 10% more Democrats, there is no reason why Obama should not be able to win this GE. Obama/Biden ticket needs to make sure that the base turns out fully in droves for them. It's about the base, the base, the base...

Remember, this is still an electoral vote contest and the map still favors Obama.  

It's hard to see how McCain flips a Kerry state.  My guess is that Palin's crazy wingnut shtick is not going to play in New Hampshire, which was probably McCain's best bet.  So that gives Obama 251 EVs to start with-- all the Kerry states.  Iowa is probably in the bank, so that's 258.  Throw in New Mexico, which is heavily trending Obama, and that's 263.  

McCain's task will be to sweep Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina without letting another red state like Missouri or Indiana slip away.  He could afford to lose Nevada and still squeak out a 270-268 win, but you get the picture.  It is McCain with the small margin for error, not Obama.

This was never going to be a cake walk. The GOP is out in full force, they have made some brilliant moves.

We are still competitive.

They have been in full-out balls-on attack mode since Schmidt took over. They have been playing the media like a fiddle. McCain is burning his POW cred, he is destroying his media base, and he was panicked into what turns out to be a good decision.

Without evidence of panic, or great strain, the Obama campaign (with the Clintons help) has been working strategically, countering this to the extent that we were up by 8 yesterday.

Now the GOP is calling down a culture war. Fuck 2004, where they mildly mocked their way to victory, they are having to go all in, willing to tear the country in half to win. THEY smell defeat. Palin gives them a fighting chance, not a mandate.

Remember, we haven't even shown all our cards yet. We're encroaching on important Senate seats. The electoral college still favors us. We are GOTV at a rate of 50 to 60 times what McCain is. We have an incredibly smart campaign team, and a nominee who must have ice in his veins.

This is not a time to worry. We are showing the GOP what a REAL tussle looks like. We are making them go scorched earth, just to stay apace. They have to hide their VP from the freaking press, while our nominee goes on O'Reilly.

Have any of you ever been in a fight? Even when you win, you get a black eye, a busted lip, and an arm that's sore for two weeks. You don't win because you took no damage, you win because the other guy looks worse.

I'm proud of Democrats this year, win or lose. Lets keep donating, and phonebanking, and staying positive. Worrying is just silly.

I am not worried, I use reality and the clear facts, not the assumed and skewed facts. It's just a front page diary trying to use a poll to say "told you so" ( due to something above my pay grade) yet, and here's the best part, the poll doesnt tell us shite

my 2 cents on your "Hillary" remark, FWIW:

Far better for the party if Hillary stays mute on Sarah Palin until the media is DESPERATE for her opinion.

The have her toss out some scathing off-hand comment that reveals her contempt and dismissal of the VP nominee's credentials.  THAT would have an impact.

For her to come forward now would be seen as a partisan move that would undercut her position in the feminist movement.  She's not that stupid.

it is MCCAIN. His bad judgement. His first Big Important Decision was palin. Is the story about palin's and why she is so unqualified or is it about MCCAIN and how he chose such an unqualified person for his VP?

"Country First"? ... yeah RIGHT?!

Progressive Blue

Progressive Blue

Damn straight!

Elections are not sprints.  They are a long distance run and these things take time.  This is the republican's week.  

Now the campaign finally happens.  

Several things:

Look at Pollster.com, RCP, 538 or any compilation and you will see that this race has NOT been tied.  Obama has had a consistent lead since at least April.  At this point in 2004 Kerry was tanking.

If you recall in the Primaries, apart from the aberration in NH, Obama nearly always over performed the polls.  Why was this?  Oh yeah - remember that ace up the sleeve, the ground game?  They scoff at community organizing now... the poetic justice in November is likely to be all too perfect.

Did I mention that this race isn't and hasn't been tied?

So quite reading the tea leaves in the polls, get out there and make those phone calls, knock on those doors, talk to your neighbors and friends.  One conversation at a time, yes we can!

I am not worried. I think this RNC was flat and uninspiring and disjointed. Palin had them fired up but she also drove a wedge between McCain and independents. Then tonight McCain acted like he was a republican at all so I don't know what message they were trying to send.

But thanks WSB for pointing out that one poll does not indicate that Sarah Palin is anything more than an unknown rural governor with an incredibly narrow field of vision.

I am not worried. I think this RNC was flat and uninspiring and disjointed. Palin had them fired up but she also drove a wedge between McCain and independents. Then tonight McCain acted like he wasn't a republican at all so I don't know what message they were trying to send.

But thanks WSB for pointing out that one poll does not indicate that Sarah Palin is anything more than an unknown rural governor with an incredibly narrow field of vision.

Best diary I've read today.

We're not scared of losing to them.  We're scared of them running the country.

I think in the back of our minds we could all imagine living under a McCain presidency.  This country is in sore need of new leadership and competence, and as bad as another four years of the same policies would have been, it might have been bearable.  But this?  My god.  What if they win?

It isn't Palin that scares me, although there is plenty about her to be scared about. This week, we all saw the soulless nature of the Republican party. I have no doubt about the lack of intelligence of most in that party, and I have serious doubts about those that call themselves Independents. Are they smart enough to see through McCain's and Palin's bullshit? It's the Independents that scare me.